When your team is most dangerous and vulnerable

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If you like placing a cheeky bet, then you’ll love this.

93 goals have been scored across the opening seven A-League rounds which equates to 13.3 goals a round and 2.7 goals a match, this tally just behind the 99 goals scored at this time last season.

Scoring goals is one thing, but knowing when during a game they’re most likely to happen is another.

Each team is dangerous and equally vulnerable at different stages of matches as reflected by when they score and concede during games.

Here is your guide to seeing when your team is most dangerous during goal, most vulnerable and what minute mark you should place your tenner on.

Adelaide United

Most dangerous: 45-60 minutes.

Most vulnerable: 76-90 minutes.

It was an exciting off season for the Reds and the momentum has carried into the season as they keep their finger on the pulse, keeping in touch with the top end of the table. The team has conceded seven goals so far, the second fewest in the league, and scored ten goals up the other end.

So far this season the Reds have been first half specialists.

The team has only conceded one goal in a first half, scored by Wellington’s Mandi when the Phoenix hosted Adelaide back in Round 3, and at the other end the Reds have managed to put five past opposition keepers in the opening 45 minutes of their games.

While 50 per cent of Adelaide’s goals have come in the first half of games, 30 per cent of their goals have been scored in the 15 minutes after half time which not only reflects positively on Marco Kurz’s team talks, but indicates this is when they are at their most dangerous.

At the other end while the team has only conceded the one first half goal they have let seven through in the last 30 minutes of their games which is 75 per cent of their goals.

In addition, Adelaide is yet to score a goal during this period as well with their latest goal so far having come in the 63rd minute against the Newcastle Jets amplifying their vulnerability in latter stages of games.

Brisbane Roar

Most dangerous: 61-75 minutes

Most vulnerable: 0-15 minutes

Brisbane so far has been this season’s slow starters.

They’ve conceded three of their seven goals in the opening fifteen minutes of games and are yet to score themselves during this period.  Brisbane’s earliest goal after round seven came in their 2-0 win over Melbourne City when Adam Taggart opened the scoring 27 minutes in.

In terms of scoring goals, Brisbane has scored seven goals ensuring their goal difference remains at zero which could prove useful should they be fighting for a spot in the finals.

Adam Taggart’s recruitment has been a revelation, continuing to impress and making a case for a Socceroos call up with each goal he scores.

Two of Taggart’s goals have come in between the 61st and 76th which is where 42 per cent of Brisbane’s goals have come from, the period they’re at their most dangerous. Likewise, Brisbane’s lead the league in conceding the fewest second half goals with two goals, along with Sydney FC.

Should Brisbane clean up their act in the opening fifteen minutes and go into the break steady, they could be a difficult team to crack.

 

Central Coast Mariners

Most dangerous: midway through both halves

Most vulnerable: 61-75 minutes

The Mariners have followed an interesting goal scoring pattern this season. In contrast to last season, where they only managed ten first half goals, they have put four first half goals after seven rounds.

Central Coast fans have only had seven goals to celebrate this season and four of them have come midway through each half.

For the Mariners to win games they have to be switched on early. Since the beginning of season 2017/18 the Mariners have lost 17 out of 18 games when the opposition scored first.

Despite the team showing signs of improvement they have still conceded 16 goals with seven of them being let through in the last half hour of games. Unlike last season where the Mariners improved as games went on, they have only scored two second half goals and none after the 75th minute. This is amplified with the Mariners statistically being the most likely to concede in the last 15 minutes based off results since the beginning of season 2017/18.

Melbourne City

Most dangerous: 0-15 minutes

Most vulnerable: 15-30 minutes

Despite having only conceded seven goals so far, four of them have come in between the 15th and 30th minute mark of games with this also being the only period where City is yet to score themselves.

This is interesting considering the team has been good off the mark, scoring two goals and conceding none in the first 15 minutes of the first seven games, the only other times City has conceded has been late in the second half.

City has scored the second fewest goals inside the top six, averaging only the seventh highest shots inside the box whereas they average the second most shots outside the box.

Melbourne Victory

Most dangerous: 76-90 minutes

Most vulnerable: 31-45 minutes

It’s not surprising Melbourne Victory is the only team to have scored at every fifteen-minute interval after seven rounds. A forward line consisting of Ola Toivonen, Keisuke Honda, Terry Antonis and Kosta Barbarouses was always going to be dangerous but the story with the Victory has always been their, at times, shaky defence.

The champions have so far conceded four first half goals with these coming in the minutes before half time, arguably the worst time to concede.

Scoring early has been a trait the Victory have mastered over the last two seasons.  Eight of their 14 goals so far have come in the first half and the Victory have scored the opening goals in 28 of their last 46 matches.

Victory’s ability to create chances inside the box is what makes them so dangerous, averaging the second highest shots inside the box and the most shots on target this season.

Newcastle Jets

Most dangerous: 76-90 minutes

Most vulnerable : 61-75 minutes

This time last year the Jets had already scored 15 goals, a feat not even the league leaders of this season Perth Glory has achieved just yet, but it’s a different story this season at the Jets who’s options up front is limited.

A combination of injuries and suspensions have seen Ernie Merrick at times field a team without a recognised striker, resulting in the side only managing five goals in the opening seven games.

According to the statistics the Jets are at their most dangerous in the last fifteen minutes of games having scored three goals this season during this period. One of Newcastle’s challenges this season has been a lack of chances created in the box, whereas they lead the competition in shots outside the box.

In defence the task has been equally as arduous.

The Jets have conceded eight goals so far with three of them coming in between the 61st and 75th minute, the only interval where the Jets have conceded multiple goals in.

Perth Glory

Most dangerous: 0-15 minutes

Most vulnerable: either side of half time

Everyone might have seen the Glory coming but no one was ready for this Tony Popovic lead onslaught.

Perth has made their intentions clear from day one they meant business and this is reflected in the way they start and finish matches. Based off the first seven rounds Perth is the league’s best starters and certainly know how to finish games.

The Glory have scored three goals inside the first fifteen minutes, in addition to two stoppage time winners. According to the statistics the Glory have achieved a balance in relation to their scoring with five first half goals and seven in the second half, including four goals coming in the last 15 minutes.

Where the Glory succeed in contrast to other teams is in their conviction up front. The team knows how to take their chances averaging only 11 shots per game, the seventh highest in the league.

Defensively the Glory have been solid yet have conceded three goals either side of half time without scoring themselves, marking this period as their most vulnerable.

 

Sydney FC

Most dangerous: 76-90 minutes

Most vulnerable: 16-30 minutes

New coach, new players, same Sydney FC… kind of.

The Sky Blues may not be as dominant today as they were under Graham Arnold but they are doing well to keep in touch with the top end of the competition.

Sydney’s defence under Steve Corica still remains difficult to break through, maintaining the best defensive record in the opening seven rounds.

The only interval where Sydney has conceded multiple goals is between the 16th and 30th minute but aside from this there doesn’t appear to be any recurring period where Sydney has shown signs of concern.

Up front the Sky Blues have maintained a strong presence with their best period being either side of the break where they have scored three of their nine goals.

 

Wellington Phoenix

Most dangerous: 31-45 minutes

Most vulnerable: 76-90 minutes

The statistics indicate the Phoenix are at their best just before the break and at their worst in the last 15 minutes.

The Nix lead the league in conceding the most goals in the last fifteen minutes.

Wellington may have only scored seven goals in the first seven rounds but two of these have come in the 15 minutes prior to the break, indicating this is where they are most likely to score. While this reflects positively on Wellington’s start to games, based off their performances since the beginning of 2017/18 they are the most likely to lose despite scoring first.

In front of goal the Phoenix have the worst shooting accuracy in the league with only 26.5 per cent of their shots, on average, going on target.

 

Western Sydney Wanderers.

Most dangerous: 0-15 minutes

Most vulnerable: either side of Half Time

Markus Babbel has been openly critical of his side this season but the statistics indicate the Wanderers are decent starters to games, despite their ladder position.

Two of Western Sydney’s six goals have come in the opening 15 minutes, games where the Wanderers went on to win and draw. The Wanderers rarely lose when the score first but in contrast have lost 78 per cent of games where they conceded first.

Defensively speaking the Wanderers seem to experience a lapse just before and after the break, conceding five of their 11 goals either side of half time without scoring during this period.

 

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Athos Sirianos
Athos Sirianos
RMIT Journalism | Football Nation Radio Like all football fans my general mood for the week is dictated by how my team performs over the weekend.

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